Future Demand Estimation
PT verification surveys conducted in February 2021 during level 1 of the Covid-19 pandemic. The sample surveys were conducted at the following PT facilities in KwaDukuza namely KwaDukuza Main Taxi Rank, KwaDukuza Bus rank, Maphumulo Rank, Glenhills, Thembeni, Shakaskraal and Ballito. Seven PT link counts along the main PT routes at the same locations for the 2012 iLembe IPTN study were also done as well as vehicle occupancy surveys at the same locations. The additional traffic counts and vehicle occupancy surveys that were carried out provided verification of the results from the PT facility surveys.
These surveys were used to verify existing PT routes and passenger movements and to determine PT growth rates to be used to estimate PT growth within KwaDukuza LM for 2020/21 and 2030. The following table provides the updated 2020/21 PT passenger demand volumes per route based on the PT surveys as well as projected passenger demand for 2030.
The PT surveys and traffic counts showed a general decrease in passenger demand mainly due to Covid‑19 and it is estimated that the PT passenger demand for 2021 has decreased by about 28% compare to the project 2019 demand volumes and PT trips also decreased by 32%. The vehicle occupancy however showed a slight increase from an average of 11.1 passengers per trip to around 11.9 passengers per trip. Mainly due to lesser vehicles operating currently.
The survey further showed that minibus-taxis operating from smaller PT facilities do on average 1.2 trips during the AM and PM peak while minibus-taxis operating from larger facilities such as KwaDukuza and Ballito do on average 2.6 and 1.8 trips during the peak periods respectively.
The projected PT demand figures for 2030 show similar levels of demand with just more than 13000 per day compared to 13600 during 2019. This is mainly because of the impact of Covid-19 on the PT and travel in general. Projected PT demand figures clearly show that current levels of PT demand will only be reached by 2030 at an average of 2% growth per annum.
Table 11: PT Demand forecast 2030
Description | ITPN 2012 | Projected 2019 Volumes | Projected 2020 Volumes | Projected 2030 Volumes | ||||||||||
Route No. | Origin | Destination | Nr of Trips (2011) | Capacity (2011) | Passenger Demand (2011) | Nr of Trips (2019) | Capacity (2019) | Passenger Demand (2019) | Nr of Trips (2020) | Capacity (2020) | Passenger Demand (2020) | Nr of Trips (2030) | Capacity (2030) | Passenger (2030) |
A01 - A02 | Balcombe | Ballito | 15 | 225 | 214 | 17 | 248 | 235 | 13 | 198 | 188 | 16 | 238 | 226 |
A01 - A21 | Balcombe | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 12 | 180 | 192 | 13 | 198 | 211 | 11 | 158 | 169 | 13 | 190 | 203 |
A02 - X03 | Ballito | Durban | 3 | 45 | 33 | 3 | 50 | 36 | 3 | 40 | 29 | 3 | 48 | 35 |
A02 - A21 | Ballito | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 44 | 660 | 260 | 48 | 726 | 286 | 39 | 581 | 229 | 46 | 697 | 275 |
A02 - A19 | Ballito | Shakaskraal | 9 | 135 | 100 | 10 | 149 | 110 | 8 | 119 | 88 | 10 | 143 | 106 |
A05 - A02 | Charlottedale | Ballito | 5 | 75 | 50 | 6 | 83 | 55 | 4 | 66 | 44 | 5 | 79 | 53 |
A05 - A21 | Charlottedale | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 4 | 60 | 60 | 4 | 66 | 66 | 4 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 63 | 63 |
A06 - A21 | Darnall | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 18 | 270 | 288 | 20 | 297 | 317 | 16 | 238 | 253 | 19 | 285 | 304 |
A07 - A21 | Dooringkop - Bulwer Farm | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 40 | 600 | 500 | 44 | 660 | 550 | 35 | 528 | 440 | 42 | 634 | 528 |
A08 - A02 | Driefontein | Ballito | 10 | 150 | 142 | 11 | 165 | 156 | 9 | 132 | 125 | 11 | 158 | 150 |
A08 - X14 | Driefontein | Tongaat | 15 | 225 | 180 | 17 | 248 | 198 | 13 | 198 | 158 | 16 | 238 | 190 |
A09 - A02 | Ethete | Ballito | 8 | 120 | 76 | 9 | 132 | 84 | 7 | 106 | 67 | 8 | 127 | 80 |
A09 - A21 | Ethete | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 22 | 330 | 220 | 24 | 363 | 242 | 19 | 290 | 194 | 23 | 348 | 232 |
A10 - A02 | Gledhow | Ballito | 8 | 120 | 80 | 9 | 132 | 88 | 7 | 106 | 70 | 8 | 127 | 84 |
A10 - A21 | Gledhow | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 17 | 255 | 255 | 19 | 281 | 281 | 15 | 224 | 224 | 18 | 269 | 269 |
A11 - A21 | Glenhills | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 53 | 795 | 756 | 58 | 875 | 832 | 47 | 700 | 665 | 56 | 840 | 798 |
A12 - A02 | Groutville 1 | Ballito | 5 | 75 | 50 | 6 | 83 | 55 | 4 | 66 | 44 | 5 | 79 | 53 |
A12 - A21 | Groutville 1 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 16 | 240 | 282 | 18 | 264 | 310 | 14 | 211 | 248 | 17 | 253 | 298 |
A39 - A02 | Groutville 3 | Ballito | 6 | 90 | 60 | 7 | 99 | 66 | 5 | 79 | 53 | 6 | 95 | 63 |
A39 - A21 | Groutville 3 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 8 | 120 | 114 | 9 | 132 | 125 | 7 | 106 | 100 | 8 | 127 | 120 |
A31 - A02 | Honolulu | Ballito | 7 | 105 | 70 | 8 | 116 | 77 | 6 | 92 | 62 | 7 | 111 | 74 |
A31 - A21 | Honolulu | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 24 | 360 | 240 | 26 | 396 | 264 | 21 | 317 | 211 | 25 | 380 | 253 |
Route No. | Origin | Destination | Nr of Trips (2011) | Capacity (2011) | Passenger Demand (2011) | Nr of Trips (2019) | Capacity (2019) | Passenger Demand (2019) | Nr of Trips (2020) | Capacity (2020) | Passenger Demand (2020) | Nr of Trips (2030) | Capacity (2030) | Passenger (2030) |
A14 - A02 | Inkobonga | Ballito | 6 | 90 | 84 | 7 | 99 | 92 | 5 | 79 | 74 | 6 | 95 | 89 |
A14 - A21 | Inkobonga | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 22 | 330 | 220 | 24 | 363 | 242 | 19 | 290 | 194 | 23 | 348 | 232 |
A21 - A02 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Ballito | 66 | 990 | 984 | 73 | 1089 | 1082 | 58 | 871 | 866 | 70 | 1045 | 1039 |
A21 - A03 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Blythedale Beach | 7 | 105 | 114 | 8 | 116 | 125 | 6 | 92 | 100 | 7 | 111 | 120 |
A21 - A06 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Darnall | 2 | 30 | 32 | 2 | 33 | 35 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 2 | 32 | 34 |
A21 - A07 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Dooringkop - Bulwer Farm | 24 | 360 | 192 | 26 | 396 | 211 | 21 | 317 | 169 | 25 | 380 | 203 |
A21 - X03 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Durban | 7 | 105 | 118 | 8 | 116 | 130 | 6 | 92 | 104 | 7 | 111 | 125 |
A21 - X04 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Empangeni | 1 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
A21 - A11 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Glenhills | 54 | 810 | 222 | 59 | 891 | 244 | 48 | 713 | 195 | 57 | 855 | 234 |
A21 - A12 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Groutville 1 | 6 | 90 | 32 | 7 | 99 | 35 | 5 | 79 | 28 | 6 | 95 | 34 |
A21 - A39 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Groutville 3 | 13 | 195 | 44 | 14 | 215 | 48 | 11 | 172 | 39 | 14 | 206 | 46 |
A21 - C04 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Kwa Mxhosa | 1 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
A21 - A15 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Lindelani | 3 | 45 | 22 | 3 | 50 | 24 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 48 | 23 |
A21 - D03 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Madundube | 40 | 600 | 206 | 44 | 660 | 227 | 35 | 528 | 181 | 42 | 634 | 218 |
A21 - B22 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Mandeni | 8 | 120 | 120 | 9 | 132 | 132 | 7 | 106 | 106 | 8 | 127 | 127 |
A21 - C03 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Maphumulo | 30 | 450 | 136 | 33 | 495 | 150 | 26 | 396 | 120 | 32 | 475 | 144 |
A21 - A17 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Ntshawini | 50 | 750 | 127 | 55 | 825 | 140 | 44 | 660 | 112 | 53 | 792 | 134 |
A21 - A19 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Shakaskraal | 3 | 45 | 28 | 3 | 50 | 31 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 3 | 48 | 30 |
A21 - A20 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Shakaville | 10 | 150 | 175 | 11 | 165 | 193 | 9 | 132 | 154 | 11 | 158 | 185 |
A21 - A22 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Thembeni | 39 | 585 | 334 | 43 | 644 | 367 | 34 | 515 | 294 | 41 | 618 | 353 |
A21 - X14 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | Tongaat | 3 | 45 | 48 | 3 | 50 | 53 | 3 | 40 | 42 | 3 | 48 | 51 |
A15 - A21 | Lindelani | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 42 | 630 | 568 | 46 | 693 | 625 | 37 | 554 | 500 | 44 | 665 | 600 |
A16 - A02 | Malende | Ballito | 16 | 240 | 160 | 18 | 264 | 176 | 14 | 211 | 141 | 17 | 253 | 169 |
A39 - A21 | Malende | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 21 | 315 | 307 | 23 | 347 | 338 | 18 | 277 | 270 | 22 | 333 | 324 |
A17 - A02 | Ntshawini 1 | Ballito | 16 | 240 | 180 | 18 | 264 | 198 | 14 | 211 | 158 | 17 | 253 | 190 |
A17 - A21 | Ntshawini 1 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 94 | 1410 | 1403 | 103 | 1551 | 1543 | 83 | 1241 | 1235 | 99 | 1489 | 1482 |
Route No. | Origin | Destination | Nr of Trips (2011) | Capacity (2011) | Passenger Demand (2011) | Nr of Trips (2019) | Capacity (2019) | Passenger Demand (2019) | Nr of Trips (2020) | Capacity (2020) | Passenger Demand (2020) | Nr of Trips (2030) | Capacity (2030) | Passenger (2030) |
A18 - A19 | Salt Rock | Shakaskraal | 5 | 75 | 20 | 6 | 83 | 22 | 4 | 66 | 18 | 5 | 79 | 21 |
A19 - A02 | Shakaskraal | Ballito | 22 | 330 | 320 | 24 | 363 | 352 | 19 | 290 | 282 | 23 | 348 | 338 |
A19 - A21 | Shakaskraal | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 12 | 180 | 180 | 13 | 198 | 198 | 11 | 158 | 158 | 13 | 190 | 190 |
A19 - A18 | Shakaskraal | Salt Rock | 8 | 120 | 122 | 9 | 132 | 134 | 7 | 106 | 107 | 8 | 127 | 129 |
A19 - X14 | Shakaskraal | Tongaat | 8 | 120 | 100 | 9 | 132 | 110 | 7 | 106 | 88 | 8 | 127 | 106 |
A41 - A21 | Shakashead | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 14 | 210 | 100 | 15 | 231 | 110 | 12 | 185 | 88 | 15 | 222 | 106 |
A20 - A21 | Shakaville | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 38 | 570 | 605 | 42 | 627 | 666 | 33 | 502 | 532 | 40 | 602 | 639 |
A22 - A02 | Thembeni 2 | Ballito | 18 | 270 | 180 | 20 | 297 | 198 | 16 | 238 | 158 | 19 | 285 | 190 |
A22 - A21 | Thembeni 2 | KwaDukuza (Stanger) | 52 | 780 | 642 | 57 | 858 | 706 | 46 | 686 | 565 | 55 | 824 | 678 |
12379 | 13617 | 10894 | 13072 | |||||||||||